A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Alberto formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and made landfall early Thursday.

The storm is large, with tropical-storm-force winds extending out 460 miles.

The storm’s maximum sustained winds strengthened to 50 mph from 40 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in a 10 p.m. local time update. Once it hits Mexico, it is expected weaken rapidly as it moves inland.

The center of Alberto was about 120 miles east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico, and around 290 miles south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas, at 1 a.m. Central Standard Time, the hurricane center said Thursday. It was traveling west at about 9 mph.

Mexico’s civil protection coordination agency said late Wednesday on social media that rain was beginning to fall in Tampico, and warned people to stay inside, stay safe, and not drive during the storm.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the northeastern coast of Mexico, as well as the Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande up to San Luis Pass, which is near Houston. High winds and as much as 10 to 15 inches of rain are expected in Corpus Christi.

Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 51 Texas counties “to ensure Texans and at-risk regions have the resources and personnel needed to respond to this storm,” he said in a statement.

The National Weather Service said moderate coastal flooding was observed across the Texas Gulf Coast as the storm approached Mexico.

Dustin Leeds and Kristine Martin, of Houston, were on vacation in Freeport, Texas, and woke up Wednesday to floodwaters that were thigh-high.

Martin woke up at around 5:30 a.m. after having heard heavy rain: “I opened the blinds and was like, ‘Huh, the ocean looks closer,’” she joked.

Residents seemed to be taking it in stride. Homes are raised in the area because of flood risk, and many people had moved their cars to safety in advance.

“Everybody’s still in their homes. There’s two other families in houses right around us that were just — they were hanging out, living their best life,” Leeds said.

A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is possible from Sargent, Texas, to the Sabine Pass.

There could also be a few tornadoes in deep South Texas overnight Wednesday into Thursday, the weather service said.

On Thursday, the storm’s center is forecast to move west into Mexico then weaken, most likely dissipating by Thursday night, the National Hurricane Center said.

Some parts of Mexico, including Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, could get maximum totals of 20 inches of rain, the hurricane center said.

The Texas A&M Forest Service has mobilized four teams comprising 100 personnel and 24 vehicles, while the Texas National Guard has three platoons of more than 40 personnel in total, alongside 20 vehicles, including Chinook helicopters.

The weather service advised people in areas affected by the storm to have five to seven days’ supplies of food, water and other necessities on hand.

More than 82 million people were under some form of heat advisory Wednesday. The heat wave is set to last through at least Friday. 

This story first appeared on NBCNews.com. More from NBCNews:

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A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Their missions are crucial when it comes to forecasting these tropical beasts.

“But the analogy we like to use is like grilling a steak. You can see the grill marks as you’re grilling a steak. You kind of have an idea how well done is inside, but you don’t really know until you insert a temperature probe to see the temperature inside. The planes do the same thing for us with our hurricane,” said Robbie Berg, a warning coordinating meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center.

There are two NOAA P3 Orion aircraft. One, nicknamed Kermit, has flown into over 100 storms dating back to 1976 and has several instruments the U.S. Air Force C-130 doesn’t, one being its own Doppler.

“You’ll see it on the back of the aircraft. It’s kind of pointy. It scans vertically, capturing all the structure of the storm,” said Nikki Hathaway, with NOAA. “And that’s what the National Hurricane Center specifically might task us to look if they’re looking for structure. So that’s one thing that makes us unique.”

The Air Force has 10 aircraft to help NOAA, but their missions have a much smaller crew consisting of only five members.

“Two pilots up front, and then we have the navigator up front as well,” said Captain Nate Wordal, a pilot with the U.S. Air Force. “And then in the back is our weather officer and our loadmaster.”

The dropsonde — a weather device to measure storm conditions — gets loaded into the dropsonde tube. The loadmaster will then release it and data gets sent immediately to a computer where they can analyze the information.

“We get flight level winds, speed and direction, pressure, temperature, moisture, dropsonde data, which measure the wind speed, direction, and pressure and temperature all the way from the aircraft out of the ocean surface,” said Michael Brennan, the director of the NHC.

The meteorologist on board has the job of quality controlling all of the information that comes in from the instruments attached to the aircraft themselves and the dropsondes before it gets sent off to the hurricane center. 

Only the bravest of men and women can say they fly into these tropical systems. 

Hathaway said there is a storm that stands out the most to her.

“One specifically was Hurricane Sam in 2021. We’re flying it for research. So we’re out there working on the Atlantic Ocean and it was going under rapid intensification,” she said. “Category 4, almost a Category 5. Didn’t meet Category 5 strength, but it was really trying to get its act together and strength, and as a result, we took a pretty hard hit.”

Wordal’s most memorable storm was Hurricane Franklin.

“I would say Hurricane Franklin last year was a big one for us. It didn’t hit the United States, but we still flew it in the Atlantic,” he said. “And, man, we just got rocked for probably 20, 30 minutes straight of just constant lightning and turbulence. And it was really, really chaos and very, very stressful.”

NOAA also has a G4 jet that flies 40 to 45,000 feet above the ground. This one-of-a-kind aircraft similarly samples the tropical cyclone, along with the anticyclone above the storm. It also samples the environment around the system to see if there are things like wind shear or other factors that will impact the track of any storm. 

How hurricanes form

While some years may produce storm totals that raise an eyebrow, this season’s forecast should probably raise a (red) flag.

In their release, NOAA is forecasting 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes. This is the highest named storm forecast NOAA has ever issued in May.

June 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season, which runs through November 30.

HURRICANE SEASON

News May 1

How to make your home hurricane resistant, as scientists predict an ‘extremely active' storm season

Considering an average season consists of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, this is a statement forecast.

In the release, NOAA asserted the 2024 season as “extraordinary” per Rick Spinrad, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere.

It is with high likelihood that ocean-atmosphere patterns will swiftly flip from El Niño to La Niña in the coming months, fostering an environment that is more conducive for storm development.

The release of this year’s seasonal outlook likely holds a little more appeal and is met with more curiosity in the wake of Colorado State’s aggressive forecast issued in early April.

At that time, CSU framed the season as “extremely active” with a call for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

Viewed as the two pillars of tropical seasonal outlooks, NOAA and Colorado State have captured the pre-season limelight this year. But they’re not the only forecasts pointing at an above-average season.

Forecasts from private sector and academic institutions are calling for an active season as well, averaging 11 hurricanes for 2024.

The season officially begins June 1st and, at this time, there are no signs of life in the tropics. This is a good thing considering 12 storms have formed in the pre-season since 2012.

Again, one of the pillars for this season’s above-average number of storms will come from the transition away from El Niño, which is already occurring, to La Niña. This ocean-atmosphere phenomenon is tucked away in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean and serves as a driving force for Atlantic basin activity.

El Niño tends to produce more upper-level wind shear, a deterrent to Atlantic storm formation. These seasons tend to average fewer storms.

However, 2023, an El Niño season, failed to show much restraint to storm development as 20 systems formed. This included Idalia, which made landfall in September as a category 3 hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend.

This year, La Niña is forecast (77% likelihood) to settle in and coincide with the peak of hurricane season. This is the alignment we don’t want, but it looks inevitable. La Niña, which features cooler water and the lack of rising air in the Pacific, lends itself to lighter winds in the Atlantic basin. These seasons feature less wind shear are likely to produce more storms in a less-hostile wind environment.

While the state of the atmosphere in the Atlantic Basin isn’t quite primed for activity, water temperatures prove ready as they failed to adequately cool in the off-season. At this time, sea-surface temperatures in mid-May are running closer to August levels and demonstrate an essential ingredient for storm formation in the coming months.

Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science has been keeping tabs on water temperatures across the Atlantic Basin.

His frequent posts to X continually advise that, both, sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) have run far above average in the off season.

He was asked to frame up his view of the season ahead, and his response was not unexpected.

"We’ve never had water temperature anomalies like this. And when you combine that with what’s certain to be a La Niña, no one has seen this before," McNoldy said.

As a reminder, these forecasts attempt to capture the total number of storms in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the season. A reflection on how active, above or below, a season may be. However, there is no skill in predicting where systems develop or where they track.

Allow the seasonal forecasts to serve as a catalyst for your preparation plan this season and the necessity to monitor the tropics, especially mid-August to mid-October.

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A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

In the Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Tammy had grown into a hurricane, with winds of 80 mph (130 kph). Hurricane warnings were issued for the islands of Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and St. Kitts and Nevis.

The center said Norma had 120 mph (195 kph) maximum sustained winds and was centered about 145 miles (235 kilometers) south of Cabo San Lucas. The Category 3 storm was moving north-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph), and the center said its outer bands of rain were already reaching the Baja peninsula.

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Hotels in Los Cabos, which are largely frequented by foreign tourists, remained about three-quarters full and there was no major move by visitors to leave, Baja California Sur state tourism secretary Maribel Collins said.

With rain already falling in Los Cabos, some flights in and out were canceled Friday, and airports would close for at least part of Saturday, according to the local civil defense office.

Norma was expected to start hitting Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo on Saturday, and the local port was closed to navigation as a precaution.

Gov. Victor Manuel Castro urged people to stay at home.

“Nobody should leave their house after six, seven in the evening,” Castro said. “Nobody should go out.”

At the marina in Cabo San Lucas, José Ceseña was hauling out of the water the boat he usually uses to ferry tourists around on tours. With the port closed and a hurricane coming, he said it wasn’t worth risking his craft.

Homero Blanco, the state commander of the National Guard, said beaches at the resort had been ordered closed and Guard troops were sent to clear people from the seashore.

“This morning there were a few people on the beach when we cleared it,” Blanco said. “We invited them to leave.”

The federal government posted 500 marines to the resort to help with storm preparations, and municipal officials said as many as 39 emergency shelters could be opened if needed.

A hurricane warning was issued for the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and the forecast track would take a weakened Norma toward the mainland of Mexico’s western Pacific coast.

The Pacific coast port of Manzanillo was also closed to small craft as a precaution, and the government of Baja California Sur state canceled some classes.

Norma was expected to weaken somewhat as it neared land, but not as much as originally forecast.

National Hurricane Center specialist John Cangialosi said the storm was expected to continue moving north into Saturday but then slow to a crawl “and should be just kind of hanging out near the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula.”

The concerns, especially if the storm slowed rather than passed quickly, were significant winds and heavy rain, he said.

In the Atlantic, Hurricane Tammy was about 55 miles (85 kilometers) east of Martinique and 135 miles (220 kilometers) southeast of the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe and was moving west-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph).

Tammy was expected to remain at hurricane strength and even strengthen slightly as it moved toward the Lesser Antilles through Saturday passing by Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda. Both Martinique and Guadeloupe are French overseas departments.

Hurricane warnings were issued for the islands of Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, and St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

___

Follow AP’s climate coverage at: https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Idalia made landfall on Florida’s West Coast as a category 3 hurricane before sweeping north to the Carolinas as a tropical storm.

Photos taken from the ground show streets turned into rivers and entire structures dismantled as residents tried to evacuate.

Satellite images taken by Maxar show the extent of the damage from above.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The National Weather Service offers helpful advice on how to stay safe and effectively prepare for a hurricane:

Stock up on supplies 

Prepare ahead of time by gathering supplies before hurricane season arrives. Create an emergency hurricane kit that includes essentials such as flashlights, batteries, a first aid kit, food, a radio, portable chargers, and more.

Ensure you have enough food supplies well before the storm approaches and stores close.

Stay informed

Keep yourself updated by checking the National Weather Service or government emergency management websites. You can also tune in to TV or radio broadcasts for storm-related news, potential evacuation notices and recommended actions. 

Secure your home

When a hurricane is approaching, take steps to protect your home. For the best protection, use permanent storm shutters on your windows. If you need to board up windows, consider using ⅝- inch exterior-grade plywood. 

Follow instructions issued by local officials

If local authorities issue an evacuation order, make arrangements to leave immediately. If evacuation is not mandated, seek shelter in a small interior space, like a closet, hallway, or room on the lowest level.

Bring your family members and pets along, and put as many walls between you and the storm as possible. Stay away from windows, skylights, and glass doors.

Allow enough time to pack

Avoid waiting until the last moment to gather your belongings. Allow sufficient time to pack your essentials and things for you and your family members or pets.

Keep friends and family informed

If you decide to relocate to a safer area or are forced to evacuate, make sure to inform your friends and family about your whereabouts to keep them updated in case of any emergencies.

Stay vigilant and take the necessary precautions if a hurricane warning or threat emerges in your area. For more detailed information and additional tips on hurricane safety, visit the National Weather Service website. 

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The word hurricane is believed to come from the indigenous Caribbean Taino word huricán, meaning evil spirits of the wind. Huricán is also the name used for the  Kʼicheʼ Maya god of wind, storm and fire — a god many believed controlled the weather.

Tales of the destructive storms go back thousands of years, long before modern records.

Here’s what to know about how they happen:

How do hurricanes form?

When storms gather in the tropical Atlantic or eastern Pacific and have strong winds of 74 mph or higher, they’re called hurricanes.

These storms develop over the ocean and get their strength from latent heat. This heat is released when air warmed by the ocean water rises and condenses to form tall storm clouds.

Once the air loses its moisture, it sinks back down. Some of it goes to the center of the storm, which is called the eye. It’s a calm spot surrounded by the storm’s worst winds. 

But most of the hot, dry air descends around the outer edges of the storm, making the weather quiet before the storm hits again. This is known as the “calm before the storm.”

Why do hurricanes cause so much damage?

While we often hear about the strong winds, hurricanes usually cause the most damage with water. 

There are two types of flooding. Storm surge is the localized wind-driven rise of the sea that can flood towns and areas with many feet of seawater. Simultaneously, hurricanes often dump rainfall that can be measured in feet.

What’s the difference between hurricanes and typhoons?

Hurricane isn’t the only name for these storms. In the western pacific, they’re called “typhoons.” In the southern hemisphere, they go by “cyclones.”

Hurricanes and typhoons are the same weather phenomenon and only differ by name, according to NOAA weather experts.

To learn more on hurricanes and hurricane safety, visit the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) website.

Cindy had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. The system was about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and moving west-northwest at 14 mph. No watches or warnings were in effect.

Cindy should remain out over the open Atlantic as it drifts to the northwest over the coming days.

Meanwhile, Bret slightly weakened Thursday night with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

Bret was just miles near St. Vincent and St. Lucia as it moved to the west at 18 mph.

Portions of the Lesser Antilles will likely see tropical storm conditions along with heavy rain Thursday night and Friday.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Bret was expected to weaken Thursday or Friday as it passes the Lesser Antilles, and is likely to dissipate by Saturday night or Sunday.

Between 3 to 6 inches of rain, with likely higher amounts, are expected across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Bret.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Thursday issued an El Niño advisory, announcing the arrival of the climatic condition. It may not quite be like the others.

It formed a month or two earlier than most El Niño do, which “gives it room to grow,” and there’s a 56% chance it will be considered strong and a 25% chance it reaches supersized levels, said climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Niño/La Niña forecast office.

“If this El Niño tips into the largest class of events … it will be the shortest recurrence time in the historical record,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Brown University. Such a short gap between El Niño leaves communities with less time to recover from damages to infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems like coral reefs.

Usually, an El Niño mutes hurricane activity in the Atlantic, giving relief to coastal areas in states from Texas to New England, Central America and the Caribbean, weary from recent record busy years. But this time, forecasters don’t see that happening, because of record hot Atlantic temperatures that would counteract the El Niño winds that normally decapitate many storms.

Hurricanes strengthen and grow when they travel over warm seawater, and the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean are “exceptionally warm,” said Kristopher Karnauskas, associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder. So this year, NOAA and others are predicting a near-average Atlantic hurricane season.

In the past, a strong El Niño has led to record global warmth, like in 2016 and 1998. Scientists earlier this year had been saying next year is more likely to set a record heat, especially because El Niño usually reach peak power in winter. But this El Niño started even earlier than usual.

“The onset of El Niño has implications for placing 2023 in the running for warmest year on record when combined with climate-warming background,” said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd.

An El Niño is a natural, temporary and occasional warming of part of the Pacific that shifts weather patterns across the globe, often by moving the airborne paths for storms. The world earlier this year got out of an unusually long-lasting and strong La Niña — El Niño’s flip side with cooling — that exacerbated drought in the U.S. West and augmented Atlantic hurricane season.

What this in some ways means is that some of the wild weather of the past three years – such as drought in places – will flip the opposite way.

“If you’ve been suffering three years of a profound drought like in South America, then a tilt toward wet might be a welcome to development,” L’Heureux said. “You don’t want flooding, but certainly there are portions of the world that may benefit from the onset of El Niño.”

For the next few months, during the northern summer, El Niño will most be felt in the Southern Hemisphere with “minimal impacts” in North America, L’Heureux said.

El Niño strongly tilts Australia toward drier and warmer conditions with northern South America — Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela — likely to be drier and Southeast Argentina and parts of Chile likely to be wetter, she said. India and Indonesia also tend to be dry through August in El Niños.

While traditionally El Niño means fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, it often means more tropical cyclones in the Pacific, L’Heureux said.

El Niño hits hardest in December through February, shifting the winter storm track farther south to the equator. The entire southern third to half of the United States, including California, is likely to be wetter in El Niño. For years, California was looking for El Niño rain relief from a decades long megadrought, but this winter’s seemingly endless atmospheric rivers made it no longer needed, she said.

The U.S. Pacific Northwest and parts of the Ohio Valley can go dry and warm, L’Heureux said.

Some of the biggest effects are likely to be seen in a hotter and drier Indonesia and adjacent parts of Asia, L’Heureux said. Also look for parts of southern Africa to go dry.

On the other hand, drought-stricken countries in northeast Africa will welcome beneficial rainfall after enduring drought conditions for several years due to prolonged La Niña events, said Azhar Ehsan, associate research scientist at Columbia University.

Some economic studies have shown that La Niña causes more damages in the United States and globally than El Niño.

One 2017 study in an economic journal found El Niño has a “growth-enhancing effect” on the economies of the United States and Europe, while it was costly for Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa.

But a recent study says El Niño is far more expensive globally than previously thought, putting damage estimates in the trillions of dollars. The World Bank estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño cost governments $45 billion.

The United States also faces hazards from El Niño despite some benefits. Ehsan noted that the increased rainfall in California, Oregon, and Washington heightens the risk of landslides and flash flooding in these areas. “While El Niño brings benefits in terms of water resource recharge, it poses certain hazards that need to be considered and managed,” he added.

___

Borenstein reported from Washington, O’Malley from Philadelphia.

Tropical Storm Arlene had maximum sustained winds around 40 mph and was about 170 miles west of the Dry Tortugas, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

The system was expected to continue moving south and could be a remnant low by Saturday and dissipate Sunday, the NHC said.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect.

Portions of Florida were expected to experience heavy rainfall over the weekend, though the NHC said the rainfall was not directly related to the depression.

The depression formed on Thursday, the first official day of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends in November.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a “near-normal” 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with 12-17 named storms expected according to predictions released May 25.

Of those named storms, five to nine are expected to be hurricanes and one to four could be major hurricanes.

This story uses functionality that may not work in our app. Click here to open the story in your web browser.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

Hurricane season Jun 29

Beryl becomes first hurricane of the season, moves toward Barbados

Hurricanes May 31

What do hurricane hunters do? A look at the teams that fly into tropical beasts

One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, Cayman Brac and for Haiti’s entire southern coast. Beryl was forecast to start losing intensity on Tuesday but still be near major hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, fueled by record warm waters, though it was downgraded a notch Tuesday to Category 4.

The center said Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation.

“I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address late Monday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.”

On Tuesday night, the storm was located about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph).

In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl.

“We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.”

Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall.

“This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.”

A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Trail of devastation

As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in the southeast Caribbean fanned out across the region to determine the extent of the damage that Hurricane Beryl inflicted after landing on Carriacou, an island in Grenada, as a Category 4 storm.

Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.

One fatality in Grenada occurred after a tree fell on a house, Kerryne James, minister of climate resilience, environment and renewable energy, told The Associated Press.

She said the nearby islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique sustained the greatest damage, with water, food and baby formula a priority. Beryl flattened scores of homes and businesses in Carriacou.

“The situation is grim,” Grenadian Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell told a news conference Tuesday. “There is no power, and there is almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island. The roads are not passable, and in many instances they are cut off because of the large quantity of debris strewn all over the streets.”

Mitchell added: “The possibility that there may be more fatalities remains a grim reality as movement is still highly restricted.”

Meanwhile, Ralph Gonsalves, prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, promised to rebuild the archipelago in a statement early Tuesday. He noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed, and that “similar levels of devastation” were expected on the islands of Myreau and Canouan.

The last strong hurricane to hit the southeast Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Grenadian resident Roy O’Neale, 77, recalled how he lost his home to Ivan and built back stronger, with his current home sustaining minimal damage from Hurricane Beryl.

“I felt the wind whistling, and then for about two hours straight, it was really, really terrifying at times,” he said by phone. “Branches of trees were flying all over the place.”

Hundreds of people hunkered in shelters across the southeast Caribbean, including 50 adults and 20 children who huddled inside a school in Grenada.

“Maybe some of them thought they could have survived in their homes, but when they realized the severity of it … they came for cover,” said Urban Mason, a retired teacher who served as the shelter’s manager. “People tend to be complacent.”

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One of the homes that Beryl damaged belongs to the parents of U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, who is from Carriacou. The storm also destroyed the home of his late grandmother.

In a statement, Stiell said that the climate crisis is worsening, faster than expected.

“Whether in my homeland of Carriacou … hammered by Hurricane Beryl, or in the heatwaves and floods crippling communities in some of the world’s largest economies, it’s clear that the climate crisis is pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction,” he said.

Grenada, known as the “spice isle,” is one of the world’s top exporters of nutmeg. Mitchell noted that the bulk of spices are grown in the northern part of the island, which was hit hardest by Beryl.

Historic hurricane

Beryl has broken several records, including marking the farthest east that a hurricane has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

The storm strengthened from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 42 hours, which only six other Atlantic hurricanes have done, and never before September, according to hurricane expert Sam Lillo.

Beryl is the second named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northeast Mexico and killed four people.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast called for as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of them hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.